Here is a bit of rebuttal to the "Greenland is lost" demo-scare going around (focus on 12,500 years to lose HALF the ice)

wattsupwiththat.com

Greenland Endures

By Willis Eschenbach|Aug. 3rd, 2019

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Charles the Moderator has been doing a fantastic job of keeping WUWT humming along, and deserves everyone's thanks. Today he sent me an interesting article thinking I might want to comment on it. It has the usual kind of alarmist headline, viz:

Greenland lost 11 billion tons of surface ice in one day

YIKES! EVERYONE PANIC!

Now, I've gotta admit that that sounds like a lot of ice, eleven billion with a "b" tonnes melted in one single day. However, I'm a tropical boy, so I'm kinda prejudiced in these matters. Here's my conflict of interest statement. When I'm in a place where the ice jumps up out of my adult beverage and starts running around the landscape, I consider that to be "water behaving badly" whether it's one cube or eleven billion tonnes, and I try to avoid such locations … but I digress.

To return to the question, is eleven billion tons of ice really a big number or not?

Well, to start with, it's a one-day loss in the warmest part of the year. Snow builds up on the ice sheet in the winter, and melts, sublimates, and is lost in icebergs in the summer. So this one-day loss tells us very little about the longer-term changes, what is called the "mass balance" of an ice sheet over an entire year or a longer period.

So what is happening in the longer term? A source for some information on this question is the Polar Portal. There's a good article to start with, the annual report for 2018. (It also has an interesting article on the various phenomena involved in the mass balance here.)

Let me start with a look at the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet since 1972. Here's that data.

Figure 1. Annual mass balance showing the gain or loss of the total mass of the Greenland ice sheet.

From that data, we find that the 1981 – 2010 thirty-year average mass balance for the Greenland ice sheet was a net loss of 103 billion tonnes. Again, this is a very large number, it seems like a big deal that would demand our attention … but is it really?

In order to ask the question "How big is 103 billion tonnes?", we have to ask a related question:

"Compared to what?"

In this case, the answer is, "Compared to the total amount of ice on Greenland".

Here's one way of looking at that. We can ask, IF Greenland were to continue losing ice mass at a rate of 103 billion tonnes per year, how long would it take to melt say half of the ice sheet? Not all of it, mind you, but half of it. (Note that I am NOT saying that extending a current trend is a way to estimate the future evolution of the ice sheet—I'm merely using it as a way to compare large numbers.)

To answer our question if 103 billion tonnes lost per year is a big number, we have to compare the annual ice mass loss to the amount of ice in the Greenland ice sheet. The Greenland ice sheet contains about 2.6E+15 (2,600,000,000,000,000) tonnes of water in the form of snow and ice. 

So IF the Greenland ice sheet were to lose 103 billion tonnes per year into the indefinite future, it would take about twelve thousand five hundred years to lose half of it …

And even if the loss were to jump to ten times the long-term average, it would still take twelve hundred years to melt half the ice on the Greenland ice sheet. Even my great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandchildren won't live long enough to see that.

However … there has been no big trend in mass losses in Greenland. As you can see in the graph above, it went down starting in 1980 but has generally risen since about 2010 … go figure.

Let me close with another way to visualize the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet using two graphs. The first graph shows the cumulative loss over the forty-six year period of the record. This is how it would commonly be shown.

Figure 2. Cumulative mass balance showing the cumulative gain or loss of the total mass of the Greenland ice sheet.

It's shown that way because, well, it looks pretty scary. It looks like the ice sheet is about to disappear.

By contrast, here's a more honest way to display the loss, by showing not the annual or cumulative anomalies, but instead showing the changes in the total mass of the Greenland ice sheet:

Figure 3. Changes in the total mass of the Greenland ice sheet.

Not as scary, huh?

As a result, I'd say that there's no need to worry about Greenland at this time. As Sanjeev Sabhlok recently wrote in a most reasonable article in the Times of India:

The best policy today is to (a) abandon socialism (Why does IPCC not talk about this ideology which is causing mankind the most harm?), and (b) to do everything possible to maximize the wealth of the current generations. Then review the [climate and energy] situation in 2050 when more data and new technologies become available. 

In the meanwhile, there's no harm in installing as many nuclear plants as are viable and growing more trees. And we can keep researching alternative energy technologies. However, interventions to divert precious resources into uneconomic solar and wind energy are the surest way to harm future generations. 

The climate change alarm movement is driven by extremist socialists. Ultra-socialist Saikat Chakrabarti, who prepared Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's Green New Deal, exposed the underbelly of climate change alarmism when he confessed that "The Green New Deal wasn't originally a climate thing at all. We think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing". The CO2 panic is a socialist harangue dressed in a veil of bad science. 

Can't say fairer than that …

Best to everyone, I've got to go outside now and get some work done ..

w.

PS. H/T Mona~ctm

(Featured image borrowed from http://www.clipartbest.com)   Naturally, the Real Clear Science headline actually read... Greenland Lost 9 Trillion Tons of Ice in Century Which sounds even more serious than the original headline... Greenland has lost 9,000 billion tons of ice in a century One would think that the fact that 99.7% of…

December 30, 2015

In "Alarmism"

Guest post by Thomas Fuller It is hard to understand many of those who are convinced that climate change will destroy civilization. Previous ideas about massive sea level rise or tipping points leading to unending temperature increases have been debunked. Conventional theory on climate change points to moderate temperature and…

September 6, 2010

In "Antarctic"

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This topic is a particular peeve of mine, so I hope I will be forgiven if I wax wroth. There is a most marvelous piece of technology called the GRACE satellites, which stands for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. It is composed of two…

May 23, 2010

With 265 comments

 

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Fun Friday

WORLD—Climate experts have solemnly warned that we only have twelve years left until they change the dates on global warming again.

"If we don't take action, then in 12 years we will have to explain why the world hasn't ended and come up with a new number," one UN scientist warned. "This is a very serious threat, and we urge everyone to hand control of the economy to the government immediately before we have no more time left to change the timeline again."

The scientific consensus is that roughly 10-12 years from now, the world will be flooded with new doomsday predictions. This can all be avoided if we overhaul the economy and become socialists, according to non-political, unbiased sciencey type guys.

"Should we not change our ways, our old predictions will melt, dangerously raising the chance of us having to move the goalposts again," said Al Gore. "Do you really want me to write another book, film another movie, and go on another tour in my private jet just because you dingbats couldn't be bothered to alter your lifestyles? I don't think so. Let's all get on board with this 12-year figure, or we'll have to push back the date again."

Hilarious full story here at the Babylon Bee

Someone sent me this cartoon joke

As a libertarian who is uncomfortable with the idea of forcing anyone to do anything, I can't imagine dragging even one of my nutty liberal-leftist friends to a vet for a procedure that the thought of makes me squirm.

However, I also wonder if the endless transgender screamers are doing it to themselves. Are they voluntarily removing their genes from the pool? Or is incurable leftism a viral thing?

The Dimocrats say this is another racist action by Trump

Taco Bell Faces Tortilla Crunch
By Aaron Back

It wasn't clear what caused Taco Bell's tortilla shortage. Unlike in "Idiocracy," it is unlikely that source crops are being watered with sports drinks. Photo: soe zeya tun/Reuters

In the low-IQ dystopian future depicted in the 2006 film "Idiocracy," the U.S. faces crop failures and a chronic shortage of what fictional President Comancho describes as "burrito coverings."

Creator Mike Judge has commented on some apparent similarities between our time and the world predicted by the movie, but even he might be struck by this summer's tortilla shortage at Taco Bell.

Outlets in various markets around the country are running short of the Mexican flatbread, several local and national media outlets have reported. Even for a fast-food chain famous for its large and varied menu, the loss of such a key ingredient hits hard as everything from burritos to quesadillas is affected.

It wasn't clear what caused the shortage. Unlike in "Idiocracy," it is unlikely that source crops are being watered with sports drinks.

In a statement, the company said it is working to address the shortages and encouraged customers to try other menu items such as the Power Menu Bowl or Cheesy Gordita Crunch. Taco shells made of Dorito chip material are also available. But if your favorite comes wrapped in a tortilla, you may be out of luck.

My often fading faith in simple human goodness occasionally gets a boost: Baby India is 'Thriving' in Foster Care

https://people.com/crime/baby-india-plastic-bag-thriving-in-foster-home/

These stories so often mention a dead baby. Florida has a Safe Haven law that  allows a hapless mother to abandon a newborn at such as a firehouse without recrimination. It would be a blessing if every community in the land allowed Safe Haven.

The "Florida Man" report has been pushed off the front page by this Alaska story...

"Alaska teen allegedly solicited by man to kill her friend, send him videos for $9 million"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/man-allegedly-solicited-alaska-teen-kill-her-friend-send-him-n1019146

Fans of Det. Lenny Briscoe in the original Law & Order may remember those half-funny quips to his sidekick as they studied murder scenes. 

I struggled to come up with an appropriate "Lenny-line" and failed.

I think we may have lost an entire generation. "Senseless" doesn't come as close to explaining this as "stupid".

Wouldn't a hitman have demanded half now and half after the job was done?

That simple ages-old business practice would have saved a life.

Hey Ken, do you have any job openings?

Bizarre moment televangelist defends his use of THREE private jets

By Dailymail.com Reporter|Jun. 1st, 2019

Televangelist Kenneth Copeland has appeared in a bizarre interview where he defends using three private jets to travel the world after previously claiming he didn't want to fly commercial with 'demons'.

The 82-year-old's chat with Inside Edition features him angrily pointing and staring the interviewer in one of the instances where he flares up after being confronted about his lavish lifestyle.

But at other moments Copeland has a cheerful demeanor and deflects questions by complimenting her on her eyes, praying for her, and even kissing her hand.

Lisa Guerrero caught up with Copeland – estimated to be worth $760million in October 2018 – after he last year purchased a $3million Gulfstream V private jet from producer and actor Tyler Perry.

Kenneth Copeland defends using three private jets in an Inside Edition interview after in 2016 he called flying commercial getting in 'a long tube with demons'

Last year purchased a $3million Gulfstream V private jet bringing his total to five 

Copeland, 82, says he wasn't talking about the people on planes when he mentioned demons

When she addresses how on his Believer's Voice of Victory TV show in 2016 Copeland called flying commercial to be similar to getting in 'a long tube with a bunch of demons', he turns angry.

She asks: 'Do you really believe that human beings are demons'.

In response, Copeland points and snaps back: 'No I did not and don't you ever say I did.'

He then grits his teeth as he explains how watching marshals drag a passenger off a plane – seemingly referring to an April 2017 United incident – made him so mad.

Using it as an example for why he take the plusher option, he asked: 'Do you think that's a good environment for a preacher to be?'

Copeland says it riled him up so much: 'I wanted to go punch that guy myself. I can't be doing that when I'm getting ready to preach!'

'I could no longer do what I was called to do when I get on the airlines and besides that I need my clothes when I get there.'

In the bizarre chat he angrily watching someone get dragged off a plane was an example of how flying commercial was not a good environment for a preacher

At one point the preacher kisses interviewer Lisa Guerrero's hand as he thanks her for allowing his face to be on the show

He also prays for Guerrero and her two grandfathers who she said as ministers themselves didn't believe in preachers being wealthy

The Kenneth Copeland Ministries owner admits he has other small planes but he mainly uses the Gulfstream and two Citations.

Copeland claims it's not just himself who benefits from having the planes as other ministries use them.

He jets back and forth to help the needy and parks up on a private hangar at his property.

Ministers can live in a home worth up to $6.3million tax free. His lake—front mansion in Newark, Texas is worth $6million.

But he came under fire in 2010 after promising to use them to help with relief effort in Haiti for earthquake victims but not following through.

The minister has also allegedly used the planes to go on vacations.

Copeland admits in the video that he's a very wealthy man.

Pictured with his wife Gloria, he told Inside Edition that he and his spouse loved the show and he was thrilled to have his face on screen

Tyler Perry previously owned the jet that now provides Copeland with a calm environment

The author, public speaker and musician adds wide-eyed: 'My wealth does not come from offering alone. I have a lot of natural gas on my properties. You didn't know that did you baby? Isn't that wonderful?'

However he claims last year 'we invested something in the neighborhood of $25million'. 

'You can't do that when you're broke,' he smiles in the clip from May.

Copeland then takes his defense one step further by referring to Judaism. The Christian minister asks: 'Do you think the Jewish people believe you should be broke? They believe in wealth.'

But when Guerrero tells him 'some people might think that is offensive,' Copeland tells her: 'I'm not talking about 'some people' I'm talking about the Bible.'

Speaking about passages in the Old Testament regarding the wealth of Abraham, he says he 'gets excited talk about it because I love it'.

He explains that he started out 'deep in debt' and he learned from his spiritual mentor Oral Roberts – who passed away in 2009 – who he says took the same heat as he's currently dealing with.

The Kenneth Copeland Ministries owner admits he has other small planes but he mainly uses the Gulfstream and two Citations

He defended hanging onto his estimated $760M wealth because he invested $25M in 2018

But he seems to deflect when the presenter quotes the scripture that 'it's more difficult for a rich man to get into heaven than it is for a camel to get through the eye of a needle'.

Copeland responds the Bible says that 'all things are possible'.

She tries again the get the message through by saying her own grandfathers were preachers and did not agree with others doing the work of god while living with so much wealth.

But he simply says: 'The Bible is full of wealth, miracles, goodness and badness.'

He adds a disclaimer again, clarifying: 'Those are the demons. Not the people. I love the people.'

Before closing the chat he's gushes about he and his wife Gloria's love for Inside Edition and parts with a prayer for the host before kissing her hand.

'It thrills me to get the chance to have my face on Inside Edition,' he excitedly jumps. 'I love you, girl.'

Minister Copeland's lake—front mansion in Newark, Texas is worth a whopping $6million

Ministers can live in a home worth up to $6.3million and Copeland's just steers clear of that